If you’re like us at CCF, you’ve been really curious about 2016 CHIP allotments under the recent CHIP extension in MACRA. We worked with our friends at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities to estimate federal allotments for the 2016 federal fiscal year (1st column), which began October 1, using state-reported May estimates of FFY2015 spending. We also sought to estimate the impact of the new 23% bump (2nd column).

DISCLAIMER: In the coming months, CMS will release official allotment figures, based on actual, not estimated, FFY2015 spending and other information that we do not have. Our estimates are based on the best information we have available but should not be viewed as official or final.

Worried your state won’t get funds in time without official allotments? Don’t! CMS is sending upfront funds to states that estimated CHIP allotment shortfalls during the first quarter of FFY2016 that will count toward the total 2016 allotment.

So, how much might that extra 23% bump to the CHIP enhanced match be worth? Our estimates suggest an additional $3.6 billion in new funds for states after you control for growth factors. Those are new federal funds that—for states that did not budget the increase—can free up state funds previously dedicated to CHIP. State advocates can look to these increased funding estimates to make the case that states invest freed-up funds in ways that continue to support low-income children and families.