We have previously called attention to the large share of pending renewals in many states, which can be an indication that a state is not able to keep up with the workload. However, some states specifically chose to extend renewal due dates out an extra month or two to conduct more targeted outreach; those renewals were reported as pending. Our unwinding renewal data tracker now compares the original state-level renewal reports to updated renewal reports and there is mixed news to report based on the revised data reported by states through November 2023.

Two-thirds of states (32) show that more individuals whose renewals were unprocessed when the initial unwinding data was reported have been renewed rather than disenrolled. Overall, the was 8.4 percentage point drop in pending renewals. Since states generally process ex parte renewals only once, most of the successful renewals were based on the return of renewal forms, which increased by 4.3 percentage points. However, two thirds of those disenrolled lost coverage for procedural reasons (2.6 percentage points), not because they were determined ineligible (1.2 percentage points).

That sounds good until you look at the bigger picture based on completed renewals. Completed renewal data excludes pending and reflects only the share of enrollees that are renewed or disenrolled. The original share of enrollees who were successfully renewed drops from 71.4% to 69.7% while the share of people disenrolled increased from 19.8% to 20.9%.

The percentage point change in the share of people renewed or disenrolled is modest in most states – less than 5 percentage points. But in states with a higher the share of pending renewals, the impact is larger. In the ten states with the largest decline in the share of pending renewals, more people were disenrolled than renewed in four states (Iowa, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Michigan).

As always, outcomes vary by state, and 12% of renewals are still pending. The appendix below shows how state outcomes changed based on their updated reports. We will continue to posted revised data as additional updated renewal reports are posted by CMS.