Idaho Statesman

By: Devon Downey, Melissa Davlin, and Audrey Dutton

A consulting firm examining how much Medicaid expansion would cost Idaho significantly revised its analysis over the course of six drafts in a one-month span this year, from June 15 to July 19. The Milliman firm swung between an estimated 10-year cost of $105 million, and a 10-year savings of nearly $200 million — a $300 million difference. The changes across its drafts offers one example of how even the experts are unsure what will happen if voters approve Proposition 2 next month. People both for and against expansion point to evidence from other states to make their case. The Idaho Freedom Foundation, the most prominent critic of expanding Idaho Medicaid, argues unexpectedly high enrollments will put a financial burden on taxpayers. National policy experts and people who work in Idaho’s health care industry say expansion demonstrably saves money in the long term — and may be necessary to keep small, rural hospitals afloat.

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Joan Alker of the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families noted that research is finding some unexpected economic benefits beyond government budgets. Families are staying out of medical bankruptcy or collections, which is good for the economy, she said.

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